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Al Jabalain vs Arar — Division 1 2018

Al Jabalain
Al Jabalain
FT
1 – 0
Arar
Arar
5/20/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 36Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Jabalain59%
×Draw24%
Arar16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jabalain
1.65
Arar
0.73

Al Jabalain creates 126% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al Jabalain
1.55
Arar
0.47

allows per match

Al Jabalain
0.99
Arar
1.74

finishing

Al Jabalain+0.00on par
Arar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jabalain ↓

Arar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Jabalain or draw
84%
Al Jabalain or Arar
76%
Draw or Arar
41%

Winning margin

Al Jabalain wins by 2+
33%
Arar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Jabalain 1+ goals
81%
Al Jabalain 2+ goals
49%
Al Jabalain 3+ goals
23%
Arar 1+ goals
52%
Arar 2+ goals
17%
Arar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Jabalain (draw refunded)
78%
Arar (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jabalain at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.99 · 128 matches

Arar away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jabalain attack 1.55 + Arar defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.65

Arar attack 0.47 + Al Jabalain defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Al Jabalain scores more
59%
level
24%
Arar scores more
16%

Al Jabalain at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Al Jabalain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Jabalain vs Arar

Al Jabalain beat Arar 1-0 in Division 1 on May 20, 2021.

The match was played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Hail.