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Aragats vs Ani Yerevan — First League 2019

Aragats
Aragats
FT
2 – 2
Ani Yerevan
Ani Yerevan
9/30/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Kasakhi Marzik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Aragats62%
×Draw17%
Ani Yerevan21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aragats
2.93
Ani Yerevan
1.71

Aragats creates 71% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Aragats
1.93
Ani Yerevan
1.21

allows per match

Aragats
2.21
Ani Yerevan
3.93

finishing

Aragats+0.00on par
Ani Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragats ↓

Ani Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Aragats or draw
79%
Aragats or Ani Yerevan
83%
Draw or Ani Yerevan
38%

Winning margin

Aragats wins by 2+
42%
Ani Yerevan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aragats 1+ goals
94%
Aragats 2+ goals
78%
Aragats 3+ goals
55%
Ani Yerevan 1+ goals
82%
Ani Yerevan 2+ goals
51%
Ani Yerevan 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Aragats (draw refunded)
74%
Ani Yerevan (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragats at home — creates 1.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

Ani Yerevan away — creates 1.21, concedes 3.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragats attack 1.93 + Ani Yerevan defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 2.93

Ani Yerevan attack 1.21 + Aragats defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Aragats scores more
62%
level
17%
Ani Yerevan scores more
21%

Aragats at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Aragats will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aragats vs Ani Yerevan

Aragats and Ani Yerevan drew 2-2 in First League on September 30, 2019.

The match was played at Kasakhi Marzik in Ashtarak.