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Ani Yerevan vs Aragats — First League 2019

Ani Yerevan
Ani Yerevan
FT
3 – 2
Aragats
Aragats
6/16/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Pyunik Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ani Yerevan25%
×Draw18%
Aragats58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ani Yerevan
1.93
Aragats
2.93

Aragats creates 52% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ani Yerevan
1.00
Aragats
2.07

allows per match

Ani Yerevan
3.79
Aragats
2.86

finishing

Ani Yerevan+0.00on par
Aragats+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ani Yerevan ↓

Aragats →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Ani Yerevan or draw
42%
Ani Yerevan or Aragats
82%
Draw or Aragats
75%

Winning margin

Ani Yerevan wins by 2+
12%
Aragats wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Ani Yerevan 1+ goals
85%
Ani Yerevan 2+ goals
57%
Ani Yerevan 3+ goals
30%
Aragats 1+ goals
94%
Aragats 2+ goals
78%
Aragats 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Ani Yerevan (draw refunded)
30%
Aragats (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ani Yerevan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.79 · 14 matches

Aragats away — creates 2.07, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ani Yerevan attack 1.00 + Aragats defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 1.93

Aragats attack 2.07 + Ani Yerevan defence 3.79 → ÷2 → 2.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ani Yerevan scores more
25%
level
18%
Aragats scores more
58%

Aragats at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Aragats will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ani Yerevan vs Aragats

Ani Yerevan beat Aragats 3-2 in First League on June 16, 2020.

The match was played at Pyunik Training Centre in Yerevan.