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APR vs Amagaju — National Soccer League 2019

APR
APR
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Amagaju
Amagaju
5/10/2025National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 27Kigali Pelé Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

APR57%
×Draw26%
Amagaju17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APR
1.53
Amagaju
0.70

APR creates 119% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 48 away

creates per match

APR
1.81
Amagaju
0.83

allows per match

APR
0.58
Amagaju
1.25

finishing

APR+0.00on par
Amagaju+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APR ↓

Amagaju →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

APR or draw
83%
APR or Amagaju
74%
Draw or Amagaju
43%

Winning margin

APR wins by 2+
30%
Amagaju wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

APR 1+ goals
78%
APR 2+ goals
45%
APR 3+ goals
20%
Amagaju 1+ goals
50%
Amagaju 2+ goals
16%
Amagaju 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

APR (draw refunded)
77%
Amagaju (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APR at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.58 · 97 matches

Amagaju away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APR attack 1.81 + Amagaju defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.53

Amagaju attack 0.83 + APR defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

APR scores more
57%
level
26%
Amagaju scores more
17%

APR at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "APR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

APR 3 – 1 Amagaju

APR beat Amagaju 3-1 in National Soccer League on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Kigali Pelé Stadium in Kigali.