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Amagaju vs APR — National Soccer League 2019

Amagaju
Amagaju
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
APR
APR
1/14/2026National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Regular Season

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Amagaju22%
×Draw29%
APR49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amagaju
0.76
APR
1.29

APR creates 70% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 94 away

creates per match

Amagaju
0.85
APR
1.49

allows per match

Amagaju
1.10
APR
0.66

finishing

Amagaju+0.00on par
APR+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amagaju ↓

APR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–211%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Amagaju or draw
51%
Amagaju or APR
71%
Draw or APR
78%

Winning margin

Amagaju wins by 2+
7%
APR wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Amagaju 1+ goals
53%
Amagaju 2+ goals
18%
Amagaju 3+ goals
4%
APR 1+ goals
72%
APR 2+ goals
37%
APR 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Amagaju (draw refunded)
31%
APR (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amagaju at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.10 · 48 matches

APR away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.66 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amagaju attack 0.85 + APR defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.76

APR attack 1.49 + Amagaju defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Amagaju scores more
22%
level
29%
APR scores more
49%

APR at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "APR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Amagaju 0 – 1 APR

APR beat Amagaju 1-0 in National Soccer League on January 14, 2026.