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Apolonia Fier vs AF Elbasani — 1st Division 2019

Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
12/11/20231st Division1st Division · Round 15Stadiumi Loni Papuçiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Apolonia Fier38%
×Draw25%
AF Elbasani37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apolonia Fier
1.43
AF Elbasani
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 16 away

creates per match

Apolonia Fier
1.79
AF Elbasani
1.88

allows per match

Apolonia Fier
0.96
AF Elbasani
1.06

finishing

Apolonia Fier+0.00on par
AF Elbasani+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apolonia Fier ↓

AF Elbasani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Apolonia Fier or draw
63%
Apolonia Fier or AF Elbasani
75%
Draw or AF Elbasani
62%

Winning margin

Apolonia Fier wins by 2+
18%
AF Elbasani wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Apolonia Fier 1+ goals
76%
Apolonia Fier 2+ goals
42%
Apolonia Fier 3+ goals
17%
AF Elbasani 1+ goals
76%
AF Elbasani 2+ goals
41%
AF Elbasani 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)
50%
AF Elbasani (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apolonia Fier at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.96 · 90 matches

AF Elbasani away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apolonia Fier attack 1.79 + AF Elbasani defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.43

AF Elbasani attack 1.88 + Apolonia Fier defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Apolonia Fier scores more
38%
level
25%
AF Elbasani scores more
37%

Apolonia Fier at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Apolonia Fier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Apolonia Fier vs AF Elbasani

AF Elbasani beat Apolonia Fier 1-0 in 1st Division on December 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Loni Papuçiu in Fier.