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AF Elbasani vs Apolonia Fier — 1st Division 2019

AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
4/13/20241st Division1st Division · Round 29Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AF Elbasani60%
×Draw22%
Apolonia Fier18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AF Elbasani
1.94
Apolonia Fier
0.97

AF Elbasani creates 100% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 95 away

creates per match

AF Elbasani
2.71
Apolonia Fier
1.05

allows per match

AF Elbasani
0.88
Apolonia Fier
1.17

finishing

AF Elbasani+0.00on par
Apolonia Fier+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AF Elbasani ↓

Apolonia Fier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AF Elbasani or draw
82%
AF Elbasani or Apolonia Fier
78%
Draw or Apolonia Fier
40%

Winning margin

AF Elbasani wins by 2+
36%
Apolonia Fier wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AF Elbasani 1+ goals
86%
AF Elbasani 2+ goals
58%
AF Elbasani 3+ goals
30%
Apolonia Fier 1+ goals
62%
Apolonia Fier 2+ goals
25%
Apolonia Fier 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AF Elbasani (draw refunded)
76%
Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AF Elbasani at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Apolonia Fier away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AF Elbasani attack 2.71 + Apolonia Fier defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.94

Apolonia Fier attack 1.05 + AF Elbasani defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

AF Elbasani scores more
60%
level
22%
Apolonia Fier scores more
18%

AF Elbasani at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "AF Elbasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: AF Elbasani 1–0 Apolonia Fier

AF Elbasani beat Apolonia Fier 1-0 in 1st Division on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Elbasan Arena in Elbasan.