Apollon Limassol 1–0 Ethnikos Achna: Result & Stats

Apollon Limassol

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ethnikos Achna

2/21/2026

1. Division · Round 23Alphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Apollon Limassol53%

×Draw23%

Ethnikos Achna24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Apollon LimassolExpected goals in this matchEthnikos Achna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.11

Apollon Limassol

1.78

Ethnikos Achna

1.11

Apollon Limassol creates 60% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 101 away

1.62

creates per match

1.22

1.00

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Apollon Limassol

1.62

Ethnikos Achna

1.22

allows per match

Apollon Limassol

1.00

Ethnikos Achna

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Apollon Limassol+0.00on par

Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apollon Limassol ↓

Ethnikos Achna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Apollon Limassol or draw

76%

Apollon Limassol or Ethnikos Achna

77%

Draw or Ethnikos Achna

47%

Winning margin

Apollon Limassol wins by 2+

29%

Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Apollon Limassol 1+ goals

83%

Apollon Limassol 2+ goals

53%

Apollon Limassol 3+ goals

26%

Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals

67%

Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals

30%

Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Apollon Limassol (draw refunded)

69%

Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apollon Limassol at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 119 matches

Ethnikos Achna away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.94 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apollon Limassol attack 1.62 + Ethnikos Achna defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.78

Ethnikos Achna attack 1.22 + Apollon Limassol defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Apollon Limassol scores more

53%

level

23%

Ethnikos Achna scores more

24%

Apollon Limassol at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Apollon Limassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff