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Apollon Limassol vs Ethnikos Achna — Cup 2019

Apollon Limassol
Apollon Limassol
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ethnikos Achna
Ethnikos Achna
12/4/2024CupCup · 2nd RoundAlphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Apollon Limassol34%
×Draw24%
Ethnikos Achna42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apollon Limassol
1.46
Ethnikos Achna
1.65

Ethnikos Achna creates 13% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Apollon Limassol
2.00
Ethnikos Achna
2.38

allows per match

Apollon Limassol
0.92
Ethnikos Achna
0.92

finishing

Apollon Limassol+0.00on par
Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apollon Limassol ↓

Ethnikos Achna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Apollon Limassol or draw
58%
Apollon Limassol or Ethnikos Achna
76%
Draw or Ethnikos Achna
66%

Winning margin

Apollon Limassol wins by 2+
16%
Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Apollon Limassol 1+ goals
77%
Apollon Limassol 2+ goals
43%
Apollon Limassol 3+ goals
18%
Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals
81%
Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals
49%
Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Apollon Limassol (draw refunded)
45%
Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apollon Limassol at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Ethnikos Achna away — creates 2.38, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apollon Limassol attack 2.00 + Ethnikos Achna defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ethnikos Achna attack 2.38 + Apollon Limassol defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Apollon Limassol scores more
34%
level
24%
Ethnikos Achna scores more
42%

Ethnikos Achna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ethnikos Achna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Apollon Limassol 0–0 Ethnikos Achna

Apollon Limassol and Ethnikos Achna drew 0-0 in Cup on December 4, 2024.

The match was played at Alphamega Stadium in Kolossi.