Apollon Limassol 4–1 AEL: Result & Stats

Apollon Limassol

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

AEL

4/20/2024

1. Division · Relegation Round - 10Alphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Apollon Limassol49%

×Draw26%

AEL25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Apollon LimassolExpected goals in this matchAEL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.02

Apollon Limassol

1.53

AEL

1.02

Apollon Limassol creates 50% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 117 away

1.62

creates per match

1.03

1.00

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Apollon Limassol

1.62

AEL

1.03

allows per match

Apollon Limassol

1.00

AEL

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Apollon Limassol+0.00on par

AEL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apollon Limassol ↓

AEL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Apollon Limassol or draw

75%

Apollon Limassol or AEL

74%

Draw or AEL

51%

Winning margin

Apollon Limassol wins by 2+

25%

AEL wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Apollon Limassol 1+ goals

78%

Apollon Limassol 2+ goals

45%

Apollon Limassol 3+ goals

20%

AEL 1+ goals

64%

AEL 2+ goals

27%

AEL 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Apollon Limassol (draw refunded)

66%

AEL (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apollon Limassol at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 119 matches

AEL away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.44 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apollon Limassol attack 1.62 + AEL defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

AEL attack 1.03 + Apollon Limassol defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Apollon Limassol scores more

49%

level

26%

AEL scores more

25%

Apollon Limassol at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Apollon Limassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff