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AEL vs Apollon Limassol — 1. Division 2019

AEL
AEL
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Apollon Limassol
Apollon Limassol
1/2/20251. Division1. Division · Round 16Alphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

AEL37%
×Draw26%
Apollon Limassol36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AEL
1.31
Apollon Limassol
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

creates per match

AEL
1.53
Apollon Limassol
1.38

allows per match

AEL
1.18
Apollon Limassol
1.08

finishing

AEL+0.00on par
Apollon Limassol+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEL ↓

Apollon Limassol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AEL or draw
64%
AEL or Apollon Limassol
74%
Draw or Apollon Limassol
63%

Winning margin

AEL wins by 2+
17%
Apollon Limassol wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AEL 1+ goals
73%
AEL 2+ goals
38%
AEL 3+ goals
14%
Apollon Limassol 1+ goals
72%
Apollon Limassol 2+ goals
37%
Apollon Limassol 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AEL (draw refunded)
51%
Apollon Limassol (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEL at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

Apollon Limassol away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.08 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEL attack 1.53 + Apollon Limassol defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.31

Apollon Limassol attack 1.38 + AEL defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

AEL scores more
37%
level
26%
Apollon Limassol scores more
36%

AEL at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AEL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: AEL 0–1 Apollon Limassol

Apollon Limassol beat AEL 1-0 in 1. Division on January 2, 2025.

The match was played at Alphamega Stadium in Kolossi.