Apoel Nicosia 0–0 Apollon Limassol: Result & Stats

Apoel Nicosia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Apollon Limassol

4/29/2026

Cup · Semi-finalsGSP Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Apoel Nicosia35%

×Draw22%

Apollon Limassol43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Apoel NicosiaExpected goals in this matchApollon Limassol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.87

Apoel Nicosia

1.67

Apollon Limassol

1.87

Apollon Limassol creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

2.13

creates per match

2.67

1.07

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Apoel Nicosia

2.13

Apollon Limassol

2.67

allows per match

Apoel Nicosia

1.07

Apollon Limassol

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Apoel Nicosia+0.00on par

Apollon Limassol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apoel Nicosia ↓

Apollon Limassol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Apoel Nicosia or draw

57%

Apoel Nicosia or Apollon Limassol

78%

Draw or Apollon Limassol

65%

Winning margin

Apoel Nicosia wins by 2+

17%

Apollon Limassol wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Apoel Nicosia 1+ goals

81%

Apoel Nicosia 2+ goals

50%

Apoel Nicosia 3+ goals

23%

Apollon Limassol 1+ goals

85%

Apollon Limassol 2+ goals

56%

Apollon Limassol 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Apoel Nicosia (draw refunded)

45%

Apollon Limassol (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apoel Nicosia at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Apollon Limassol away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apoel Nicosia attack 2.13 + Apollon Limassol defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.67

Apollon Limassol attack 2.67 + Apoel Nicosia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Apoel Nicosia scores more

35%

level

22%

Apollon Limassol scores more

43%

Apollon Limassol at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Apollon Limassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff