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Apoel Nicosia vs Apollon Limassol — 1. Division 2019

Apoel Nicosia
Apoel Nicosia
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Apollon Limassol
Apollon Limassol
4/14/20261. Division1. Division · Championship Group - 29GSP Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Apoel Nicosia43%
×Draw27%
Apollon Limassol30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apoel Nicosia
1.35
Apollon Limassol
1.07

Apoel Nicosia creates 26% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

creates per match

Apoel Nicosia
1.61
Apollon Limassol
1.38

allows per match

Apoel Nicosia
0.76
Apollon Limassol
1.08

finishing

Apoel Nicosia+0.00on par
Apollon Limassol+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apoel Nicosia ↓

Apollon Limassol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Apoel Nicosia or draw
70%
Apoel Nicosia or Apollon Limassol
73%
Draw or Apollon Limassol
57%

Winning margin

Apoel Nicosia wins by 2+
20%
Apollon Limassol wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Apoel Nicosia 1+ goals
74%
Apoel Nicosia 2+ goals
39%
Apoel Nicosia 3+ goals
15%
Apollon Limassol 1+ goals
66%
Apollon Limassol 2+ goals
29%
Apollon Limassol 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Apoel Nicosia (draw refunded)
59%
Apollon Limassol (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apoel Nicosia at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.76 · 119 matches

Apollon Limassol away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.08 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apoel Nicosia attack 1.61 + Apollon Limassol defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.35

Apollon Limassol attack 1.38 + Apoel Nicosia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Apoel Nicosia scores more
43%
level
27%
Apollon Limassol scores more
30%

Apoel Nicosia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Apoel Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Apoel Nicosia 2–3 Apollon Limassol

Apollon Limassol beat Apoel Nicosia 3-2 in 1. Division on April 14, 2026.

The match was played at GSP Stadium in Nicosia.