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Apoel Nicosia vs AE Zakakiou — Cup 2019

Apoel Nicosia
Apoel Nicosiaadvanced
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
AE Zakakiou
AE Zakakiou
10/22/2025CupCup · Round of 32GSP Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Apoel Nicosia78%
×Draw13%
AE Zakakiou9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apoel Nicosia
2.90
AE Zakakiou
0.87

Apoel Nicosia creates 233% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

creates per match

Apoel Nicosia
2.13
AE Zakakiou
0.67

allows per match

Apoel Nicosia
1.07
AE Zakakiou
3.67

finishing

Apoel Nicosia+0.00on par
AE Zakakiou+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apoel Nicosia ↓

AE Zakakiou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Apoel Nicosia or draw
91%
Apoel Nicosia or AE Zakakiou
87%
Draw or AE Zakakiou
22%

Winning margin

Apoel Nicosia wins by 2+
58%
AE Zakakiou wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Apoel Nicosia 1+ goals
94%
Apoel Nicosia 2+ goals
78%
Apoel Nicosia 3+ goals
54%
AE Zakakiou 1+ goals
58%
AE Zakakiou 2+ goals
22%
AE Zakakiou 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Apoel Nicosia (draw refunded)
90%
AE Zakakiou (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apoel Nicosia at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

AE Zakakiou away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apoel Nicosia attack 2.13 + AE Zakakiou defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.90

AE Zakakiou attack 0.67 + Apoel Nicosia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Apoel Nicosia scores more
78%
level
13%
AE Zakakiou scores more
9%

Apoel Nicosia at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Apoel Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Apoel Nicosia 5–0 AE Zakakiou

Apoel Nicosia beat AE Zakakiou 5-0 in Cup on October 22, 2025.

The match was played at GSP Stadium in Nicosia.