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AE Zakakiou vs Apoel Nicosia — 1. Division 2019

AE Zakakiou
AE Zakakiou
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Apoel Nicosia
Apoel Nicosia
Marquinhos 90+8', 50'
8/20/20231. Division1. Division · Round 1Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

AE Zakakiou17%
×Draw20%
Apoel Nicosia62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AE Zakakiou
1.04
Apoel Nicosia
2.15

Apoel Nicosia creates 107% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 120 away

creates per match

AE Zakakiou
0.95
Apoel Nicosia
1.39

allows per match

AE Zakakiou
2.90
Apoel Nicosia
1.14

finishing

AE Zakakiou+0.00on par
Apoel Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AE Zakakiou ↓

Apoel Nicosia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

AE Zakakiou or draw
38%
AE Zakakiou or Apoel Nicosia
80%
Draw or Apoel Nicosia
83%

Winning margin

AE Zakakiou wins by 2+
6%
Apoel Nicosia wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

AE Zakakiou 1+ goals
65%
AE Zakakiou 2+ goals
28%
AE Zakakiou 3+ goals
9%
Apoel Nicosia 1+ goals
88%
Apoel Nicosia 2+ goals
63%
Apoel Nicosia 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

AE Zakakiou (draw refunded)
22%
Apoel Nicosia (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AE Zakakiou at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.90 · 20 matches

Apoel Nicosia away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AE Zakakiou attack 0.95 + Apoel Nicosia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Apoel Nicosia attack 1.39 + AE Zakakiou defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

AE Zakakiou scores more
17%
level
20%
Apoel Nicosia scores more
62%

Apoel Nicosia at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Apoel Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
Alastair David Reynolds
40'
Issam Chebake
46'
R. Yusuf← M. Šlogar
46'
L. Villafáñez← S. Gavriel
46'
Marquinhos← G. Satsias
50'
Marquinhos
53'
Yigal Becker
58'
Lasha Dvali
68'
A. Kkostis← I. Hadjivasilis
70'
M. Sušić← I. Chebake
75'
K. Michailidis← M. Sifneos
75'
A. Eleftheriou← A. Reynolds
75'
R. Petrović← G. Kostadinov
82'
D. Ndongala← G. Fetfatzidis
89'
T. Iosifidis← A. Opoku
90+3'
Konstantinos Michailidis
90+8'
Marquinhos

Possession

47%AE

Shots

10AE

Statistics

AEApoel
Overview
47%Possession53%
10Total Shots12
4Corners2
25Fouls14
Shots
10Total Shots12
3On Target6
6Off Target5
1Blocked1
Passing
47%Possession53%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
25Fouls14
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: AE Zakakiou vs Apoel Nicosia

Apoel Nicosia beat AE Zakakiou 2-0 in 1. Division on August 20, 2023.

Goals: Marquinhos (50', 90+8').

Apoel Nicosia controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi in Larnaca.