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APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs Western Sydney Wanderers — Australia Cup 2021

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
APIA Leichhardt Tigersadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Western Sydney Wanderers
Western Sydney Wanderers
12/7/2021Australia CupAustralia Cup · Round of 16Leichhardt Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

APIA Leichhardt Tigers21%
×Draw20%
Western Sydney Wanderers60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.29
Western Sydney Wanderers
2.31

Western Sydney Wanderers creates 79% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.20
Western Sydney Wanderers
2.63

allows per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
2.00
Western Sydney Wanderers
1.38

finishing

APIA Leichhardt Tigers+0.00on par
Western Sydney Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APIA Leichhardt Tigers ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

APIA Leichhardt Tigers or draw
40%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers or Western Sydney Wanderers
80%
Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers
79%

Winning margin

APIA Leichhardt Tigers wins by 2+
8%
Western Sydney Wanderers wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1+ goals
72%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2+ goals
37%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3+ goals
14%
Western Sydney Wanderers 1+ goals
90%
Western Sydney Wanderers 2+ goals
67%
Western Sydney Wanderers 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (draw refunded)
26%
Western Sydney Wanderers (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 1.20 + Western Sydney Wanderers defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Western Sydney Wanderers attack 2.63 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

APIA Leichhardt Tigers scores more
21%
level
20%
Western Sydney Wanderers scores more
60%

Western Sydney Wanderers at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Australia Cup: APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2–1 Western Sydney Wanderers

APIA Leichhardt Tigers beat Western Sydney Wanderers 2-1 in Australia Cup on December 7, 2021.

The match was played at Leichhardt Oval in Sydney.