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APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs Western Sydney Wanderers — New South Wales NPL 2026

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Western Sydney Wanderers
Western Sydney Wanderers
8/14/2020New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 3Lambert Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

APIA Leichhardt Tigers58%
×Draw21%
Western Sydney Wanderers21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
2.03
Western Sydney Wanderers
1.13

APIA Leichhardt Tigers creates 80% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 8 away

creates per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
2.06
Western Sydney Wanderers
1.13

allows per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.12
Western Sydney Wanderers
2.00

finishing

APIA Leichhardt Tigers+0.00on par
Western Sydney Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APIA Leichhardt Tigers ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

APIA Leichhardt Tigers or draw
79%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers or Western Sydney Wanderers
79%
Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers
42%

Winning margin

APIA Leichhardt Tigers wins by 2+
35%
Western Sydney Wanderers wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1+ goals
87%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2+ goals
60%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3+ goals
33%
Western Sydney Wanderers 1+ goals
68%
Western Sydney Wanderers 2+ goals
31%
Western Sydney Wanderers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (draw refunded)
74%
Western Sydney Wanderers (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.12 · 98 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 2.06 + Western Sydney Wanderers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.03

Western Sydney Wanderers attack 1.13 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

APIA Leichhardt Tigers scores more
58%
level
21%
Western Sydney Wanderers scores more
21%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "APIA Leichhardt Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs Western Sydney Wanderers

APIA Leichhardt Tigers and Western Sydney Wanderers drew 0-0 in New South Wales NPL on August 14, 2020.

The match was played at Lambert Park in Sydney.