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AO Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB — Serie C 2018

AO Itabaiana
AO Itabaiana
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Botafogo PB
Botafogo PB
6/30/2025Serie CSerie C · Round 10Estadio Etelvino Mendonca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

AO Itabaiana40%
×Draw30%
Botafogo PB30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AO Itabaiana
1.11
Botafogo PB
0.93

AO Itabaiana creates 19% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 88 away

creates per match

AO Itabaiana
1.13
Botafogo PB
0.86

allows per match

AO Itabaiana
1.00
Botafogo PB
1.10

finishing

AO Itabaiana+0.00on par
Botafogo PB+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AO Itabaiana ↓

Botafogo PB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

AO Itabaiana or draw
70%
AO Itabaiana or Botafogo PB
70%
Draw or Botafogo PB
60%

Winning margin

AO Itabaiana wins by 2+
16%
Botafogo PB wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AO Itabaiana 1+ goals
67%
AO Itabaiana 2+ goals
30%
AO Itabaiana 3+ goals
10%
Botafogo PB 1+ goals
61%
Botafogo PB 2+ goals
24%
Botafogo PB 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AO Itabaiana (draw refunded)
57%
Botafogo PB (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AO Itabaiana at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Botafogo PB away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AO Itabaiana attack 1.13 + Botafogo PB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Botafogo PB attack 0.86 + AO Itabaiana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AO Itabaiana scores more
40%
level
30%
Botafogo PB scores more
30%

AO Itabaiana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AO Itabaiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie C: AO Itabaiana 1–0 Botafogo PB

AO Itabaiana beat Botafogo PB 1-0 in Serie C on June 30, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Etelvino Mendonca in Itabaiana.