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AO Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB — Copa do Nordeste 2020

AO Itabaiana
AO Itabaiana
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Botafogo PB
Botafogo PB
3/24/2024Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 7Estádio Paulo Barreto de Menezes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

AO Itabaiana31%
×Draw27%
Botafogo PB42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AO Itabaiana
1.14
Botafogo PB
1.37

Botafogo PB creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 23 away

creates per match

AO Itabaiana
1.11
Botafogo PB
0.96

allows per match

AO Itabaiana
1.78
Botafogo PB
1.17

finishing

AO Itabaiana+0.00on par
Botafogo PB+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AO Itabaiana ↓

Botafogo PB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AO Itabaiana or draw
58%
AO Itabaiana or Botafogo PB
73%
Draw or Botafogo PB
69%

Winning margin

AO Itabaiana wins by 2+
13%
Botafogo PB wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

AO Itabaiana 1+ goals
68%
AO Itabaiana 2+ goals
32%
AO Itabaiana 3+ goals
11%
Botafogo PB 1+ goals
75%
Botafogo PB 2+ goals
40%
Botafogo PB 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

AO Itabaiana (draw refunded)
43%
Botafogo PB (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AO Itabaiana at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Botafogo PB away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AO Itabaiana attack 1.11 + Botafogo PB defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Botafogo PB attack 0.96 + AO Itabaiana defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AO Itabaiana scores more
31%
level
27%
Botafogo PB scores more
42%

Botafogo PB at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Botafogo PB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Nordeste: AO Itabaiana 0–1 Botafogo PB

Botafogo PB beat AO Itabaiana 1-0 in Copa do Nordeste on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Paulo Barreto de Menezes in Lagarto, Sergipe.