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AO Itabaiana vs America-RN — Serie D 2026

AO Itabaiana
AO Itabaiana
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
America-RN
America-RNadvanced
9/19/2021Serie DSerie D · Round of 32Estádio Paulo Barreto de Menezes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

AO Itabaiana44%
×Draw27%
America-RN29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AO Itabaiana
1.41
America-RN
1.09

AO Itabaiana creates 29% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 64 away

creates per match

AO Itabaiana
2.00
America-RN
1.19

allows per match

AO Itabaiana
1.00
America-RN
0.81

finishing

AO Itabaiana+0.00on par
America-RN+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AO Itabaiana ↓

America-RN →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AO Itabaiana or draw
71%
AO Itabaiana or America-RN
73%
Draw or America-RN
56%

Winning margin

AO Itabaiana wins by 2+
21%
America-RN wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AO Itabaiana 1+ goals
76%
AO Itabaiana 2+ goals
41%
AO Itabaiana 3+ goals
17%
America-RN 1+ goals
66%
America-RN 2+ goals
30%
America-RN 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AO Itabaiana (draw refunded)
60%
America-RN (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AO Itabaiana at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

America-RN away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.81 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AO Itabaiana attack 2.00 + America-RN defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.41

America-RN attack 1.19 + AO Itabaiana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AO Itabaiana scores more
44%
level
27%
America-RN scores more
29%

AO Itabaiana at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AO Itabaiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: AO Itabaiana 0–2 America-RN

America-RN beat AO Itabaiana 2-0 in Serie D on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Paulo Barreto de Menezes in Lagarto, Sergipe.