America-RN 1–2 AO Itabaiana: Result & Stats

America-RN

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

AO Itabaiana

2/11/2024

Copa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 2Arena das Dunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

America-RN57%

×Draw25%

AO Itabaiana19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America-RNExpected goals in this matchAO Itabaiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.81

America-RN

1.63

AO Itabaiana

0.81

America-RN creates 101% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

1.25

creates per match

0.63

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

America-RN

1.25

AO Itabaiana

0.63

allows per match

America-RN

1.00

AO Itabaiana

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America-RN+0.00on par

AO Itabaiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America-RN ↓

AO Itabaiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

America-RN or draw

81%

America-RN or AO Itabaiana

75%

Draw or AO Itabaiana

43%

Winning margin

America-RN wins by 2+

31%

AO Itabaiana wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

America-RN 1+ goals

80%

America-RN 2+ goals

48%

America-RN 3+ goals

22%

AO Itabaiana 1+ goals

56%

AO Itabaiana 2+ goals

19%

AO Itabaiana 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

America-RN (draw refunded)

75%

AO Itabaiana (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America-RN at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

AO Itabaiana away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America-RN attack 1.25 + AO Itabaiana defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

AO Itabaiana attack 0.63 + America-RN defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

America-RN scores more

57%

level

25%

AO Itabaiana scores more

19%

America-RN at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "America-RN will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff