Antofagasta 2–2 Deportes Iquique: Result & Stats

Antofagasta

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Deportes Iquique

11/19/2023

Primera B · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Antofagasta52%

×Draw24%

Deportes Iquique23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntofagastaExpected goals in this matchDeportes Iquique

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.04

Antofagasta

1.68

Deportes Iquique

1.04

Antofagasta creates 62% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 55 away

1.80

creates per match

1.11

0.98

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Antofagasta

1.80

Deportes Iquique

1.11

allows per match

Antofagasta

0.98

Deportes Iquique

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Antofagasta+0.00on par

Deportes Iquique+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antofagasta ↓

Deportes Iquique →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Antofagasta or draw

77%

Antofagasta or Deportes Iquique

76%

Draw or Deportes Iquique

48%

Winning margin

Antofagasta wins by 2+

28%

Deportes Iquique wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Antofagasta 1+ goals

81%

Antofagasta 2+ goals

50%

Antofagasta 3+ goals

24%

Deportes Iquique 1+ goals

65%

Deportes Iquique 2+ goals

28%

Deportes Iquique 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Antofagasta (draw refunded)

69%

Deportes Iquique (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antofagasta at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Deportes Iquique away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antofagasta attack 1.80 + Deportes Iquique defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Deportes Iquique attack 1.11 + Antofagasta defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Antofagasta scores more

52%

level

24%

Deportes Iquique scores more

23%

Antofagasta at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Antofagasta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff