Antioquia 3–1 AD Sarchí: Result & Stats

Antioquia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

AD Sarchí

9/22/2023

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 12Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Antioquia38%

×Draw24%

AD Sarchí37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntioquiaExpected goals in this matchAD Sarchí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.51

Antioquia

1.53

AD Sarchí

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 63 away

1.47

creates per match

1.40

1.63

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Antioquia

1.47

AD Sarchí

1.40

allows per match

Antioquia

1.63

AD Sarchí

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Antioquia+0.00on par

AD Sarchí+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antioquia ↓

AD Sarchí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Antioquia or draw

63%

Antioquia or AD Sarchí

76%

Draw or AD Sarchí

62%

Winning margin

Antioquia wins by 2+

19%

AD Sarchí wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Antioquia 1+ goals

78%

Antioquia 2+ goals

45%

Antioquia 3+ goals

20%

AD Sarchí 1+ goals

78%

AD Sarchí 2+ goals

44%

AD Sarchí 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Antioquia (draw refunded)

51%

AD Sarchí (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antioquia at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

AD Sarchí away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.59 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antioquia attack 1.47 + AD Sarchí defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.53

AD Sarchí attack 1.40 + Antioquia defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Antioquia scores more

38%

level

24%

AD Sarchí scores more

37%

Antioquia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Antioquia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff