AD Sarchí 4–1 Antioquia: Result & Stats

AD Sarchí

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Antioquia

3/6/2024

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 12Estadio Municipal Eliécer Pérez Conejo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

AD Sarchí55%

×Draw23%

Antioquia23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD SarchíExpected goals in this matchAntioquia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.14

AD Sarchí

1.88

Antioquia

1.14

AD Sarchí creates 65% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 32 away

1.82

creates per match

1.16

1.11

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

AD Sarchí

1.82

Antioquia

1.16

allows per match

AD Sarchí

1.11

Antioquia

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Sarchí+0.00on par

Antioquia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Sarchí ↓

Antioquia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

AD Sarchí or draw

77%

AD Sarchí or Antioquia

77%

Draw or Antioquia

45%

Winning margin

AD Sarchí wins by 2+

31%

Antioquia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

AD Sarchí 1+ goals

85%

AD Sarchí 2+ goals

56%

AD Sarchí 3+ goals

29%

Antioquia 1+ goals

68%

Antioquia 2+ goals

32%

Antioquia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AD Sarchí (draw refunded)

70%

Antioquia (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Sarchí at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.11 · 62 matches

Antioquia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Sarchí attack 1.82 + Antioquia defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.88

Antioquia attack 1.16 + AD Sarchí defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

AD Sarchí scores more

55%

level

23%

Antioquia scores more

23%

AD Sarchí at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "AD Sarchí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff