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Antequera vs Linares Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Antequera
Antequera
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
11/19/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Estadio El Maulí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Antequera48%
×Draw24%
Linares Deportivo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antequera
1.68
Linares Deportivo
1.21

Antequera creates 39% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Antequera
1.54
Linares Deportivo
1.24

allows per match

Antequera
1.19
Linares Deportivo
1.82

finishing

Antequera+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antequera ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Antequera or draw
72%
Antequera or Linares Deportivo
76%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
52%

Winning margin

Antequera wins by 2+
26%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Antequera 1+ goals
81%
Antequera 2+ goals
50%
Antequera 3+ goals
24%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
70%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
34%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Antequera (draw refunded)
64%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antequera at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antequera attack 1.54 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.68

Linares Deportivo attack 1.24 + Antequera defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Antequera scores more
48%
level
24%
Linares Deportivo scores more
28%

Antequera at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Antequera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Antequera vs Linares Deportivo

Antequera beat Linares Deportivo 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Maulí in Antequera.