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Antequera vs Linares Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Antequera
Antequera
CANC
00:00
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 32Estadio El Maulí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Antequera29%
×Draw27%
Linares Deportivo45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antequera
1.08
Linares Deportivo
1.42

Linares Deportivo creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 14 away

creates per match

Antequera
1.38
Linares Deportivo
2.07

allows per match

Antequera
0.77
Linares Deportivo
0.79

finishing

Antequera+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antequera ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Antequera or draw
55%
Antequera or Linares Deportivo
73%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
71%

Winning margin

Antequera wins by 2+
11%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Antequera 1+ goals
66%
Antequera 2+ goals
29%
Antequera 3+ goals
10%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
76%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
41%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Antequera (draw refunded)
39%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antequera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.77 · 26 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antequera attack 1.38 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.08

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + Antequera defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Antequera scores more
29%
level
27%
Linares Deportivo scores more
45%

Linares Deportivo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Antequera face Linares Deportivo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 returns with Antequera hosting Linares Deportivo. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Antequera host Linares Deportivo at Estadio El Maulí.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.