Antalyaspor 0–1 Alanyaspor: Result & Stats

Antalyaspor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Alanyaspor

3/4/2020

Türkiye Kupası · Semi-finalsAntalya Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Antalyaspor45%

×Draw23%

Alanyaspor32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntalyasporExpected goals in this matchAlanyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.46

Antalyaspor

1.77

Alanyaspor

1.46

Antalyaspor creates 21% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 17 away

2.08

creates per match

1.88

1.04

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Antalyaspor

2.08

Alanyaspor

1.88

allows per match

Antalyaspor

1.04

Alanyaspor

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Antalyaspor+0.00on par

Alanyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antalyaspor ↓

Alanyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Antalyaspor or draw

68%

Antalyaspor or Alanyaspor

77%

Draw or Alanyaspor

55%

Winning margin

Antalyaspor wins by 2+

24%

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Antalyaspor 1+ goals

83%

Antalyaspor 2+ goals

53%

Antalyaspor 3+ goals

26%

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

77%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

43%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Antalyaspor (draw refunded)

58%

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antalyaspor at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Alanyaspor away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antalyaspor attack 2.08 + Alanyaspor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.77

Alanyaspor attack 1.88 + Antalyaspor defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Antalyaspor scores more

45%

level

23%

Alanyaspor scores more

32%

Antalyaspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Antalyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff