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Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Alanyaspor
Alanyasporadvanced
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Antalyaspor
Antalyaspor
6/18/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · Semi-finalsBahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alanyaspor68%
×Draw18%
Antalyaspor14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alanyaspor
2.41
Antalyaspor
0.99

Alanyaspor creates 143% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 14 away

creates per match

Alanyaspor
3.24
Antalyaspor
1.07

allows per match

Alanyaspor
0.90
Antalyaspor
1.57

finishing

Alanyaspor+0.00on par
Antalyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanyaspor ↓

Antalyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Alanyaspor or draw
86%
Alanyaspor or Antalyaspor
82%
Draw or Antalyaspor
32%

Winning margin

Alanyaspor wins by 2+
46%
Antalyaspor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Alanyaspor 1+ goals
91%
Alanyaspor 2+ goals
69%
Alanyaspor 3+ goals
43%
Antalyaspor 1+ goals
63%
Antalyaspor 2+ goals
26%
Antalyaspor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)
83%
Antalyaspor (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanyaspor at home — creates 3.24, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

Antalyaspor away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanyaspor attack 3.24 + Antalyaspor defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.41

Antalyaspor attack 1.07 + Alanyaspor defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Alanyaspor scores more
68%
level
18%
Antalyaspor scores more
14%

Alanyaspor at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Alanyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor

Alanyaspor beat Antalyaspor 4-0 in Türkiye Kupası on June 18, 2020.

The match was played at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu in Alanya.