Ansan Greeners vs Suwon Bluewings — K League 2 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 27+ matches
Ansan Greeners24%
Suwon Bluewings51%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Suwon Bluewings creates 56% more chances
Season form · 30 home / 27 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ansan Greeners ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ansan Greeners at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches
Suwon Bluewings away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 27 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ansan Greeners attack 0.77 + Suwon Bluewings defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.07
Suwon Bluewings attack 1.74 + Ansan Greeners defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.67
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Suwon Bluewings at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Suwon Bluewings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Suwon Bluewings substitutes
Incheon UnitedSuwon Bluewings
Bucheon FC 1995
Seoul E-Land FC
Seongnam FC
Jeonnam Dragons
Gimpo Citizen
Busan I Park
Asan Mugunghwa
Hwaseong
Gyeongnam FC
Cheongju
Cheonan CityAnsan GreenersIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ansan Greeners host Suwon Bluewings on Saturday, 11 July 2026 at 10:30. The match is part of the K League 2 2025/2026 season.
K League 2: Ansan Greeners 2–1 Suwon Bluewings
Ansan Greeners beat Suwon Bluewings 2-1 in K League 2 on July 11, 2026.
Goals: Kang Seong-Jin (31'), Gabriel Lima (63'), Kim In-Sung (83').
The match was played at Ansan WA Stadium in Ansan.