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Ansan Greeners vs Suwon Bluewings — K League 2 2022

Ansan Greeners
Ansan Greeners
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Suwon Bluewings
Suwon Bluewings
11/9/2025K League 2K League 2 · Round 38Ansan WA Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ansan Greeners26%
×Draw25%
Suwon Bluewings48%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ansan Greeners
1.10
Suwon Bluewings
1.58

Suwon Bluewings creates 44% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 45 away

creates per match

Ansan Greeners
1.00
Suwon Bluewings
1.51

allows per match

Ansan Greeners
1.66
Suwon Bluewings
1.20

finishing

Ansan Greeners+0.00on par
Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ansan Greeners ↓

Suwon Bluewings →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ansan Greeners or draw
52%
Ansan Greeners or Suwon Bluewings
75%
Draw or Suwon Bluewings
74%

Winning margin

Ansan Greeners wins by 2+
10%
Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Ansan Greeners 1+ goals
67%
Ansan Greeners 2+ goals
30%
Ansan Greeners 3+ goals
10%
Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals
79%
Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals
47%
Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ansan Greeners (draw refunded)
35%
Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ansan Greeners at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.66 · 86 matches

Suwon Bluewings away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ansan Greeners attack 1.00 + Suwon Bluewings defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.51 + Ansan Greeners defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ansan Greeners scores more
26%
level
25%
Suwon Bluewings scores more
48%

Suwon Bluewings at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Suwon Bluewings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 2: Ansan Greeners 1–1 Suwon Bluewings

Ansan Greeners and Suwon Bluewings drew 1-1 in K League 2 on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Ansan WA Stadium in Ansan.