Annecy 2–1 Sochaux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Annecy

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sochaux

K. Mouanga 81'

I. Baldé 71'

I. Sissoko 7'

11/5/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 14Parc des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Annecy39%

×Draw29%

Sochaux32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnnecyExpected goals in this matchSochaux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.03

Annecy

1.17

Sochaux

1.03

Annecy creates 14% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 159 away

1.25

creates per match

0.99

1.07

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Annecy

1.25

Sochaux

0.99

allows per match

Annecy

1.07

Sochaux

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Annecy+0.00on par

Sochaux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annecy ↓

Sochaux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Annecy or draw

68%

Annecy or Sochaux

71%

Draw or Sochaux

61%

Winning margin

Annecy wins by 2+

16%

Sochaux wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Annecy 1+ goals

69%

Annecy 2+ goals

33%

Annecy 3+ goals

11%

Sochaux 1+ goals

64%

Sochaux 2+ goals

28%

Sochaux 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Annecy (draw refunded)

55%

Sochaux (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annecy at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.07 · 72 matches

Sochaux away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.08 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annecy attack 1.25 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sochaux attack 0.99 + Annecy defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Annecy scores more

39%

level

29%

Sochaux scores more

32%

Annecy at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Annecy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

S. Shamal

Annecy · M

7.7

Match Events

7'

I. Sissoko↳ J. Faussurier

64'

A. Bosetti← K. Testud

64'

C. Billemaz← A. Temanfo

64'

I. Baldé← M. Sahi

64'

V. Henry← A. Kalulu

71'

Y. Armougom← A. Ndour

71'

I. Baldé↳ A. Bosetti

77'

Maxence Prévot

77'

Yoël Armougom

81'

K. Mouanga↳ S. Shamal

82'

M. Do Couto← J. Faussurier

86'

Valentin Henry

90'

M. Bastian← S. Shamal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AnnecySochaux

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots9

5Corners2

12Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots9

6On Target6

2Off Target3

3Blocked0

8Inside Box8

3Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

466Total Passes399

343Accurate Passes289

74%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls13

0Yellow Cards3

3Offsides8