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Annecy vs Clermont Foot — Ligue 2 2018

Annecy
Annecy
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
K. Cissé 90+7' (pen)
A. Bermont 10'
12/6/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 15Parc des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Annecy40%
×Draw29%
Clermont Foot31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Annecy
1.21
Clermont Foot
1.03

Annecy creates 17% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 98 away

creates per match

Annecy
1.25
Clermont Foot
0.99

allows per match

Annecy
1.07
Clermont Foot
1.16

finishing

Annecy+0.00on par
Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annecy ↓

Clermont Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Annecy or draw
69%
Annecy or Clermont Foot
71%
Draw or Clermont Foot
60%

Winning margin

Annecy wins by 2+
17%
Clermont Foot wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Annecy 1+ goals
70%
Annecy 2+ goals
34%
Annecy 3+ goals
12%
Clermont Foot 1+ goals
64%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
28%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Annecy (draw refunded)
56%
Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annecy at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.07 · 72 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annecy attack 1.25 + Clermont Foot defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Clermont Foot attack 0.99 + Annecy defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Annecy scores more
40%
level
29%
Clermont Foot scores more
31%

Annecy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Annecy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
A. BermontAnnecyAnnecy · M
8.9

Match Events

10'
A. Bermont↳ K. Djoco
33'
Johan Gastien
45+1'
Mehdi BaaloudjMissed penalty
53'
Vincent Pajot
60'
F. Lajugie← A. Larose
60'
K. Cissé← K. Djoco
63'
F. Diédhiou← M. Baaloudj
67'
Famara Diédhiou
67'
Yohann Magnin
71'
Julien Kouadio
73'
Y. Diaby← T. Diagouraga
74'
R. Valme← T. Dago
79'
Cheick Konate
86'
Q. Paris← A. Bermont
86'
I. Fakili← M. Douane
86'
Y. Armougom← C. Konaté
90+7'
K. CisséPenalty

Possession

28%Annecy

Shots

17Annecy

Pass accuracy

43%Annecy

Statistics

AnnecyClermont
Overview
28%Possession72%
17Total Shots15
4Corners5
9Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots15
8On Target3
6Off Target8
3Blocked4
12Inside Box10
5Outside Box5
Passing
28%Possession72%
231Total Passes594
146Accurate Passes488
63%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
9Fouls12
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Annecy vs Clermont Foot

Annecy beat Clermont Foot 2-0 in Ligue 2 on December 6, 2024.

Goals: A. Bermont (10'), K. Cissé (90+7' pen).

Clermont Foot controlled possession (72%) and registered 15 shots to 17.

The match was played at Parc des Sports in Annecy.