Annan Athletic 1–1 Stranraer: Result & Stats

Annan Athletic

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stranraer

10/10/2020

League Cup · Group Stage - 3Galabank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Annan Athletic45%

×Draw22%

Stranraer33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Annan AthleticExpected goals in this matchStranraer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.67

Annan Athletic

1.97

Stranraer

1.67

Annan Athletic creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

1.40

creates per match

0.82

2.53

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Annan Athletic

1.40

Stranraer

0.82

allows per match

Annan Athletic

2.53

Stranraer

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Stranraer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annan Athletic ↓

Stranraer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Annan Athletic or draw

67%

Annan Athletic or Stranraer

78%

Draw or Stranraer

55%

Winning margin

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

25%

Stranraer wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

86%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

58%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

31%

Stranraer 1+ goals

81%

Stranraer 2+ goals

50%

Stranraer 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

58%

Stranraer (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annan Athletic at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Stranraer away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annan Athletic attack 1.40 + Stranraer defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.97

Stranraer attack 0.82 + Annan Athletic defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Annan Athletic scores more

45%

level

22%

Stranraer scores more

33%

Annan Athletic at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Annan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff