Annan Athletic 3–4 Dumbarton: Result & Stats

Annan Athletic

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Dumbarton

T. Muir 90'

A. Smith 83' (pen)

M. Kilsby 60'

A. Roy 57', 39'

L. McIntosh 50', 28'

8/23/2025

League Two · Round 4Galabank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Annan Athletic46%

×Draw23%

Dumbarton31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Annan AthleticExpected goals in this matchDumbarton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.40

Annan Athletic

1.74

Dumbarton

1.40

Annan Athletic creates 24% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 55 away

1.87

creates per match

1.33

1.46

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Annan Athletic

1.87

Dumbarton

1.33

allows per match

Annan Athletic

1.46

Dumbarton

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Dumbarton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annan Athletic ↓

Dumbarton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Annan Athletic or draw

69%

Annan Athletic or Dumbarton

77%

Draw or Dumbarton

54%

Winning margin

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

24%

Dumbarton wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

82%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

52%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

25%

Dumbarton 1+ goals

75%

Dumbarton 2+ goals

41%

Dumbarton 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

59%

Dumbarton (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annan Athletic at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.46 · 97 matches

Dumbarton away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.60 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annan Athletic attack 1.87 + Dumbarton defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.74

Dumbarton attack 1.33 + Annan Athletic defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Annan Athletic scores more

46%

level

23%

Dumbarton scores more

31%

Annan Athletic at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Annan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

39'

45+2'

48'

50'

L. McIntosh↳ D. Docherty

54'

E. Deveney← M. Gaffney

57'

A. Roy↳ S. Tomlinson

60'

M. Kilsby↳ P. Smith

69'

T. McCormick← A. Roy

69'

T. Wallace← S. Tomlinson

69'

S. Honeyman← L. McIntosh

69'

C. Johnston← K. Kirkpatrick

83'

A. SmithPenalty

86'

A. Lynas← D. Docherty

87'

W. Gibson

90'

T. Muir

Annan

Dumbarton

28

25

23

6

5

14

7

A

▼

Tomlinson

18

A

▼

Docherty

27

▼

Kirkpatri

10

⚽2A

▼

Roy

15

⚽2

▼

1

8

14

3

⚽

6

33

7

16

A

Smith

10

▼

Gaffney

9

⚽

Smith

5

⚽

Muir

Manager: William Gibson

54'▲E. Deveney←▼M. Gaffney

Annan Athletic substitutes

12Clarke15Deveney17Craik19Maxwell20Barlow21Allan

Manager: Stephen Edward Farrell

69'▲T. McCormick←▼A. Roy

69'▲T. Wallace←▼S. Tomlinson

69'▲S. Honeyman←▼L. McIntosh

69'▲C. Johnston←▼K. Kirkpatrick

86'▲A. Lynas←▼D. Docherty

Dumbarton substitutes

19Ecrepont2Lynas3Clark8McEvoy9McCormick11Wallace17Falconer21Honeyman22Johnston

League Two: Annan Athletic 3–4 Dumbarton

Dumbarton beat Annan Athletic 4-3 in League Two on August 23, 2025.

Goals: L. McIntosh (28', 50'), A. Roy (39', 57'), M. Kilsby (60'), A. Smith (83' pen), T. Muir (90').

The match was played at Galabank in Annan.

Annan Athletic vs Dumbarton — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Two: Annan Athletic 3–4 Dumbarton