Annan Athletic 3–3 Dumbarton: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Annan AthleticExpected goals in this matchDumbarton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.50

Annan Athletic

1.63

Dumbarton

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.25

creates per match

1.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Annan Athletic

2.25

Dumbarton

1.50

allows per match

Annan Athletic

1.50

Dumbarton

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Dumbarton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annan Athletic ↓

Dumbarton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Annan Athletic or draw

65%

Annan Athletic or Dumbarton

76%

Draw or Dumbarton

59%

Winning margin

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

21%

Dumbarton wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

80%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

48%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

22%

Dumbarton 1+ goals

78%

Dumbarton 2+ goals

44%

Dumbarton 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

54%

Dumbarton (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annan Athletic at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Dumbarton away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annan Athletic attack 2.25 + Dumbarton defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Dumbarton attack 1.50 + Annan Athletic defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Annan Athletic scores more

41%

level

24%

Dumbarton scores more

35%

Annan Athletic at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Annan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

M. DouglasOwn goal

35'

C. Pignatiello

42'

R. Wallace↳ K. Orsi

46'

B. Luissint← L. Hunter

46'

W. Gibson← J. Galloway

48'

K. Nugent↳ A. Smith

55'

D. Docherty↳ B. Luissint

67'

J. Graham← S. Campbell

73'

A. Smith

77'

D. Wilson← B. Malcolm

77'

R. MacLean← R. Wallace

77'

J. Hilton← T. Wallace

88'

F. Gray↳ J. Hilton

90+6'

A. Lynas

90'

J. Dixon← R. Muir

100'

A. Smith↳ D. Docherty

112'

D. Docherty

113'

M. Ruth↳ K. Orsi

116'

R. MacLean

118'

J. Hilton↳ M. Ruth

Annan

Dumbarton

1

Long

26

Crighton

2

Lynas

4

▼

Malcolm

22

Shiels

14

▼

Wallace

12

Pignatiel

18

⚽

Gray

9

⚽

▼

Wallace

7

A

Orsi

23

⚽A

Ruth

1

Fleming

5

🥅

Douglas

2

▼

Muir

3

Kilsby

6

▼

Campbell

4

▼

Hunter

8

⚽A

Docherty

7

▼

Galloway

11

⚽

Nugent

9

⚽2A

Smith

19

Muir

46'▲B. Luissint←▼L. Hunter

46'▲W. Gibson←▼J. Galloway

67'▲J. Graham←▼S. Campbell

90'▲J. Dixon←▼R. Muir

Annan Athletic substitutes

14Luissint33Gibson16Graham15Dixon12Mitchell17McMenamin

Manager: S. Farrell

77'▲D. Wilson←▼B. Malcolm

77'▲R. MacLean←▼R. Wallace

77'▲J. Hilton←▼T. Wallace

Dumbarton substitutes

8Wilson11MacLean17Hilton16Broun6Blair15Vata

FA Cup: Annan Athletic 3–3 Dumbarton

Annan Athletic and Dumbarton drew 3-3 in FA Cup on November 25, 2023.

Goals: M. Douglas (5' o.g.), R. Wallace (42'), K. Nugent (48'), D. Docherty (55'), A. Smith (73', 100'), F. Gray (88'), M. Ruth (113'), J. Hilton (118').

The match was played at Galabank in Annan.

Annan Athletic vs Dumbarton — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Annan Athletic 3–3 Dumbarton