Annan Athletic 1–2 Albion Rovers: Result & Stats

Annan Athletic

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Albion Rovers

T. Goss 43'

N. Joseph 82'

Bright Prince 77'

7/22/2023

League Cup · Group Stage - 4Galabank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Annan Athletic49%

×Draw21%

Albion Rovers30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Annan AthleticExpected goals in this matchAlbion Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.60

Annan Athletic

2.09

Albion Rovers

1.60

Annan Athletic creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

1.40

creates per match

0.67

2.53

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Annan Athletic

1.40

Albion Rovers

0.67

allows per match

Annan Athletic

2.53

Albion Rovers

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annan Athletic ↓

Albion Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Annan Athletic or draw

70%

Annan Athletic or Albion Rovers

79%

Draw or Albion Rovers

51%

Winning margin

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

28%

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

88%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

62%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

34%

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

80%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

47%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

62%

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annan Athletic at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Albion Rovers away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annan Athletic attack 1.40 + Albion Rovers defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.09

Albion Rovers attack 0.67 + Annan Athletic defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Annan Athletic scores more

49%

level

21%

Albion Rovers scores more

30%

Annan Athletic at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Annan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

R. Muir← F. Glenn

43'

T. Goss↳ S. Campbell

45+1'

Bright Prince← A. Fernie

48'

A. Smith

76'

B. Duncan

77'

Bright Prince

80'

R. Paterson← D. McColl

82'

N. Joseph↳ Bright Prince

90+3'

J. Tran← N. Joseph

Annan

Albion

1

Connelly

5

Fagan

2

▼

Fernie

15

▼

16

8

6

21

9

⚽

▼

10

14

1

2

4

5

6

A

8

11

7

3

▼

Glenn

9

Smith

10

⚽

Goss

Manager: P. Murphy

16'▲R. Muir←▼F. Glenn

Annan Athletic substitutes

15Muir17Jamieson14Swinglehurst16Maxwell18Cranston

Manager: S. Clark

45+1'▲Bright Prince←▼A. Fernie

80'▲R. Paterson←▼D. McColl

90+3'▲J. Tran←▼N. Joseph

Albion Rovers substitutes

20Prince18Paterson19Tran17Walker22Henderson12McMenemy