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Annan Athletic vs Albion Rovers — League Two 2018

Annan Athletic
Annan Athletic
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Albion Rovers
Albion Rovers
4/15/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 33Galabank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Annan Athletic49%
×Draw23%
Albion Rovers28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Annan Athletic
1.83
Albion Rovers
1.32

Annan Athletic creates 39% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 80 away

creates per match

Annan Athletic
1.87
Albion Rovers
1.18

allows per match

Annan Athletic
1.46
Albion Rovers
1.80

finishing

Annan Athletic+0.00on par
Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annan Athletic ↓

Albion Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Annan Athletic or draw
72%
Annan Athletic or Albion Rovers
77%
Draw or Albion Rovers
51%

Winning margin

Annan Athletic wins by 2+
27%
Albion Rovers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Annan Athletic 1+ goals
84%
Annan Athletic 2+ goals
54%
Annan Athletic 3+ goals
28%
Albion Rovers 1+ goals
73%
Albion Rovers 2+ goals
38%
Albion Rovers 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)
64%
Albion Rovers (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annan Athletic at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.46 · 97 matches

Albion Rovers away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.80 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annan Athletic attack 1.87 + Albion Rovers defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.83

Albion Rovers attack 1.18 + Annan Athletic defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Annan Athletic scores more
49%
level
23%
Albion Rovers scores more
28%

Annan Athletic at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Annan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Annan Athletic vs Albion Rovers

Annan Athletic beat Albion Rovers 4-0 in League Two on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Galabank in Annan.