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Ankaraspor vs Eskişehirspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Ankaraspor
Ankaraspor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Eskişehirspor
Eskişehirspor
9/2/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st Round15 Temmuz Milli Birlik Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ankaraspor65%
×Draw19%
Eskişehirspor16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ankaraspor
2.25
Eskişehirspor
1.00

Ankaraspor creates 125% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ankaraspor
2.75
Eskişehirspor
0.75

allows per match

Ankaraspor
1.25
Eskişehirspor
1.75

finishing

Ankaraspor+0.00on par
Eskişehirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankaraspor ↓

Eskişehirspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ankaraspor or draw
84%
Ankaraspor or Eskişehirspor
81%
Draw or Eskişehirspor
35%

Winning margin

Ankaraspor wins by 2+
42%
Eskişehirspor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ankaraspor 1+ goals
89%
Ankaraspor 2+ goals
65%
Ankaraspor 3+ goals
39%
Eskişehirspor 1+ goals
63%
Eskişehirspor 2+ goals
26%
Eskişehirspor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ankaraspor (draw refunded)
81%
Eskişehirspor (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankaraspor at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Eskişehirspor away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankaraspor attack 2.75 + Eskişehirspor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.25

Eskişehirspor attack 0.75 + Ankaraspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ankaraspor scores more
65%
level
19%
Eskişehirspor scores more
16%

Ankaraspor at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ankaraspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Ankaraspor 1–2 Eskişehirspor

Eskişehirspor beat Ankaraspor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 2, 2025.

The match was played at 15 Temmuz Milli Birlik Stadyumu in Ankara.