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Ankaraspor vs Eskişehirspor — 1. Lig 2018

Ankaraspor
Ankaraspor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Eskişehirspor
Eskişehirspor
9/12/20201. Lig1. Lig · Round 1Osmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ankaraspor55%
×Draw22%
Eskişehirspor23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ankaraspor
1.91
Eskişehirspor
1.16

Ankaraspor creates 65% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Ankaraspor
1.29
Eskişehirspor
0.96

allows per match

Ankaraspor
1.35
Eskişehirspor
2.53

finishing

Ankaraspor+0.00on par
Eskişehirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankaraspor ↓

Eskişehirspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ankaraspor or draw
77%
Ankaraspor or Eskişehirspor
78%
Draw or Eskişehirspor
45%

Winning margin

Ankaraspor wins by 2+
32%
Eskişehirspor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ankaraspor 1+ goals
85%
Ankaraspor 2+ goals
57%
Ankaraspor 3+ goals
30%
Eskişehirspor 1+ goals
69%
Eskişehirspor 2+ goals
32%
Eskişehirspor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ankaraspor (draw refunded)
70%
Eskişehirspor (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankaraspor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Eskişehirspor away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.53 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankaraspor attack 1.29 + Eskişehirspor defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.91

Eskişehirspor attack 0.96 + Ankaraspor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ankaraspor scores more
55%
level
22%
Eskişehirspor scores more
23%

Ankaraspor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ankaraspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Ankaraspor 1–0 Eskişehirspor

Ankaraspor beat Eskişehirspor 1-0 in 1. Lig on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Osmanlı Stadı in Ankara.