Ankaragücü 6–2 Amed: Result & Stats

Ankaragücü

FT

6 – 2

HT: 4 – 0

Amed

G. Zahid 74', 28'

T. Chatzigiovanis 46'

Jesé 45+2', 7'

S. Osmanoğlu 9'

T. Gümüş 89'

S. Osmanoğlu 85' (OG)

11/8/2022

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundEryaman Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ankaragücü79%

×Draw13%

Amed8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnkaragücüExpected goals in this matchAmed

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

0.83

Ankaragücü

2.92

Amed

0.83

Ankaragücü creates 252% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

2.39

creates per match

0.78

0.89

allows per match

3.44

creates per match

Ankaragücü

2.39

Amed

0.78

allows per match

Ankaragücü

0.89

Amed

3.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Amed+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankaragücü ↓

Amed →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Ankaragücü or draw

92%

Ankaragücü or Amed

87%

Draw or Amed

21%

Winning margin

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

59%

Amed wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

94%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

78%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

55%

Amed 1+ goals

56%

Amed 2+ goals

20%

Amed 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

91%

Amed (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankaragücü at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Amed away — creates 0.78, concedes 3.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankaragücü attack 2.39 + Amed defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.92

Amed attack 0.78 + Ankaragücü defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Ankaragücü scores more

79%

level

13%

Amed scores more

8%

Ankaragücü at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Ankaragücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

9'

28'

45+2'

46'

N. Aslan← B. Güngördü

46'

T. Chatzigiovanis

53'

N. Bekmez← E. Çapar

53'

H. Çokyaşar← E. Ertuş

57'

A. Babacan← T. Chatzigiovanis

57'

Ş. Çetin← Pêpê Rodrigues

57'

F. Macheda← Jesé

64'

A. Erat← M. Seyhan

71'

K. Çağatay← E. Mızrak

71'

O. Deniz← T. Kanarya

74'

G. Zahid

85'

S. OsmanoğluOwn goal

88'

C. Coskun

89'

T. Gümüş

Statistics

AnkaragücüAmed

Overview

5Corners3