Amed 1–0 Ankaragücü: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Amed

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ankaragücü

A. Traoré 90+6'

1/12/2025

1. Lig · Round 19Diyarbakır Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Amed49%

×Draw25%

Ankaragücü26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmedExpected goals in this matchAnkaragücü

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.06

Amed

1.55

Ankaragücü

1.06

Amed creates 46% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 37 away

1.92

creates per match

1.30

0.82

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Amed

1.92

Ankaragücü

1.30

allows per match

Amed

0.82

Ankaragücü

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amed+0.00on par

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amed ↓

Ankaragücü →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Amed or draw

74%

Amed or Ankaragücü

75%

Draw or Ankaragücü

51%

Winning margin

Amed wins by 2+

25%

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Amed 1+ goals

79%

Amed 2+ goals

46%

Amed 3+ goals

20%

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

65%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

29%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Amed (draw refunded)

65%

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amed at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Ankaragücü away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amed attack 1.92 + Ankaragücü defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.55

Ankaragücü attack 1.30 + Amed defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Amed scores more

49%

level

25%

Ankaragücü scores more

26%

Amed at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Amed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Traoré

Amed · M

8.3

Match Events

46'

K. Lovrić← Y. Ceylan

47'

Cem Türkmen

72'

Ç. Orhan← Y. Cassubie

72'

R. Dadashov← R. Bajić

74'

Adama Traoré

76'

Y. Gültekin← C. Türkmen

82'

Kristijan Lovrić

90+3'

Ömer Bayram

90+10'

B. Tur← M. Uçar

90+10'

A. Koç← Ö. Bayram

90+10'

M. Yeşil← B. Assombalonga

90+1'

M. Kesik← O. Çelik

90+6'

A. Traoré↳ Ç. Orhan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmedAnkaragücü

Overview

65%Possession35%

18Total Shots9

7Corners4

9Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots9

6On Target3

9Off Target5

3Blocked1

10Inside Box6

8Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

557Total Passes294

492Accurate Passes229

88%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

6Offsides3