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Angust Nazran vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz II — Second League - Group 1 2020

Angust Nazran
Angust Nazran
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
6/24/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Stadion Central'nyj im. Rashida Ausheva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Angust Nazran56%
×Draw25%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angust Nazran
1.60
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
0.83

Angust Nazran creates 93% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 58 away

creates per match

Angust Nazran
0.79
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
0.78

allows per match

Angust Nazran
0.89
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
2.41

finishing

Angust Nazran+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angust Nazran ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Angust Nazran or draw
81%
Angust Nazran or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
75%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
44%

Winning margin

Angust Nazran wins by 2+
30%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Angust Nazran 1+ goals
80%
Angust Nazran 2+ goals
47%
Angust Nazran 3+ goals
22%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals
56%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals
20%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Angust Nazran (draw refunded)
74%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angust Nazran at home — creates 0.79, concedes 0.89 · 38 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angust Nazran attack 0.79 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.60

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 0.78 + Angust Nazran defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Angust Nazran scores more
56%
level
25%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more
19%

Angust Nazran at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Angust Nazran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Angust Nazran 2 – 0 Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

Angust Nazran beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2-0 in Second League - Group 1 on June 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj im. Rashida Ausheva in Nazran'.