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Alaniya Vladikavkaz II vs Angust Nazran — Second League - Group 1 2020

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Angust Nazran
Angust Nazran
10/26/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Stadion Akademii Fk Alaniya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II25%
×Draw24%
Angust Nazran51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.12
Angust Nazran
1.70

Angust Nazran creates 52% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 41 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.12
Angust Nazran
0.63

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
2.78
Angust Nazran
1.12

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par
Angust Nazran+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II ↓

Angust Nazran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or draw
49%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or Angust Nazran
76%
Draw or Angust Nazran
75%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+
10%
Angust Nazran wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals
67%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals
31%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals
10%
Angust Nazran 1+ goals
82%
Angust Nazran 2+ goals
51%
Angust Nazran 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)
33%
Angust Nazran (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.78 · 58 matches

Angust Nazran away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 1.12 + Angust Nazran defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Angust Nazran attack 0.63 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more
25%
level
24%
Angust Nazran scores more
51%

Angust Nazran at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Angust Nazran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 0–1 Angust Nazran

Angust Nazran beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii Fk Alaniya in Vladikavkaz.