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Angers vs Amiens — Ligue 1 2018

Angers
Angers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Amiens
Amiens
9/28/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 8Stade Raymond-Kopa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Angers46%
×Draw26%
Amiens28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angers
1.44
Amiens
1.06

Angers creates 36% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 33 away

creates per match

Angers
1.14
Amiens
0.76

allows per match

Angers
1.37
Amiens
1.73

finishing

Angers+0.00on par
Amiens+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angers ↓

Amiens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Angers or draw
72%
Angers or Amiens
74%
Draw or Amiens
54%

Winning margin

Angers wins by 2+
22%
Amiens wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Angers 1+ goals
76%
Angers 2+ goals
42%
Angers 3+ goals
18%
Amiens 1+ goals
65%
Amiens 2+ goals
29%
Amiens 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Angers (draw refunded)
62%
Amiens (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angers at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.37 · 121 matches

Amiens away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angers attack 1.14 + Amiens defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

Amiens attack 0.76 + Angers defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Angers scores more
46%
level
26%
Amiens scores more
28%

Angers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Angers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Angers 1 – 1 Amiens

Angers and Amiens drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Raymond-Kopa in Angers.