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Amiens vs Angers — Ligue 1 2018

Amiens
Amiens
CANC
00:00
Angers
Angers
3/14/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 29Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Amiens44%
×Draw27%
Angers29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amiens
1.40
Angers
1.09

Amiens creates 28% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 120 away

creates per match

Amiens
1.12
Angers
0.83

allows per match

Amiens
1.36
Angers
1.67

finishing

Amiens+0.00on par
Angers+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amiens ↓

Angers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Amiens or draw
71%
Amiens or Angers
73%
Draw or Angers
56%

Winning margin

Amiens wins by 2+
21%
Angers wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Amiens 1+ goals
75%
Amiens 2+ goals
41%
Amiens 3+ goals
17%
Angers 1+ goals
66%
Angers 2+ goals
30%
Angers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Amiens (draw refunded)
60%
Angers (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amiens at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

Angers away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.67 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amiens attack 1.12 + Angers defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Angers attack 0.83 + Amiens defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Amiens scores more
44%
level
27%
Angers scores more
29%

Amiens at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Amiens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Amiens host Angers

March 14, 2020: Amiens take on Angers in Ligue 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Amiens host Angers at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.