Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Angelholms FF vs Lund — Svenska Cupen 2019

Angelholms FF
Angelholms FF
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lund
Lund
7/30/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 1st RoundÄnglavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Angelholms FF5%
×Draw11%
Lund84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angelholms FF
0.60
Lund
3.00

Lund creates 400% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Angelholms FF
0.80
Lund
2.80

allows per match

Angelholms FF
3.20
Lund
0.40

finishing

Angelholms FF+0.00on par
Lund+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angelholms FF ↓

Lund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–213%
0–313%
0–410%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Angelholms FF or draw
16%
Angelholms FF or Lund
89%
Draw or Lund
95%

Winning margin

Angelholms FF wins by 2+
1%
Lund wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

Angelholms FF 1+ goals
45%
Angelholms FF 2+ goals
12%
Angelholms FF 3+ goals
2%
Lund 1+ goals
95%
Lund 2+ goals
79%
Lund 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Angelholms FF (draw refunded)
5%
Lund (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angelholms FF at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Lund away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angelholms FF attack 0.80 + Lund defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.60

Lund attack 2.80 + Angelholms FF defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Angelholms FF scores more
5%
level
11%
Lund scores more
84%

Lund at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Lund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Angelholms FF vs Lund

Angelholms FF and Lund drew 1-1 in Svenska Cupen on July 30, 2020.

The match was played at Änglavallen in Ängelholm.