Angelholms FF 0–2 Kristianstad: Result & Stats

Angelholms FF

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kristianstad

M. Cabaña 71'

N. Christoffersson 58'

10/15/2018

Ettan - Södra · Round 26Nya Träningsplanerna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Angelholms FF49%

×Draw24%

Kristianstad27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Angelholms FFExpected goals in this matchKristianstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.21

Angelholms FF

1.69

Kristianstad

1.21

Angelholms FF creates 40% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 24 away

1.34

creates per match

1.04

1.39

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Angelholms FF

1.34

Kristianstad

1.04

allows per match

Angelholms FF

1.39

Kristianstad

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angelholms FF+0.00on par

Kristianstad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angelholms FF ↓

Kristianstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Angelholms FF or draw

73%

Angelholms FF or Kristianstad

76%

Draw or Kristianstad

51%

Winning margin

Angelholms FF wins by 2+

26%

Kristianstad wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Angelholms FF 1+ goals

82%

Angelholms FF 2+ goals

50%

Angelholms FF 3+ goals

24%

Kristianstad 1+ goals

70%

Kristianstad 2+ goals

34%

Kristianstad 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Angelholms FF (draw refunded)

64%

Kristianstad (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angelholms FF at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.39 · 70 matches

Kristianstad away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angelholms FF attack 1.34 + Kristianstad defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.69

Kristianstad attack 1.04 + Angelholms FF defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Angelholms FF scores more

49%

level

24%

Kristianstad scores more

27%

Angelholms FF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Angelholms FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

N. Jönsson← S. Abuzayda

56'

M. Almeida Sundell← M. Leidewall

58'

N. Christoffersson

66'

A. Engholm← M. Eriksson

71'

M. Cabaña

77'

D. Dakaj← H. Lawrence

82'

A. Hallbäck← H. Agerström

88'

R. Hedlin← O. Malmgren

Angelholms

Kristianstad

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Tengryd

56'▲M. Almeida Sundell←▼M. Leidewall

66'▲A. Engholm←▼M. Eriksson

82'▲A. Hallbäck←▼H. Agerström

Angelholms FF substitutes

SundellEngholmHallbäckSvenssonZachrisonStrandbergStreifert

Manager: B. Llazani

46'▲N. Jönsson←▼S. Abuzayda

77'▲D. Dakaj←▼H. Lawrence

88'▲R. Hedlin←▼O. Malmgren

Kristianstad substitutes

JönssonDakajHedlinBarreyroGerdesPenaCederlund

Ettan - Södra: Angelholms FF 0–2 Kristianstad

Kristianstad beat Angelholms FF 2-0 in Ettan - Södra on October 15, 2018.

Goals: N. Christoffersson (58'), M. Cabaña (71').

The match was played at Nya Träningsplanerna in Ängelholm.

Angelholms FF vs Kristianstad — Ettan - Södra 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ettan - Södra: Angelholms FF 0–2 Kristianstad