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Angel City W vs North Carolina Courage W — NWSL Women 2026

Angel City W
Angel City W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
North Carolina Courage W
North Carolina Courage W
7/10/2023NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 10BMO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Angel City W37%
×Draw26%
North Carolina Courage W37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angel City W
1.33
North Carolina Courage W
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 82 away

creates per match

Angel City W
1.30
North Carolina Courage W
1.33

allows per match

Angel City W
1.38
North Carolina Courage W
1.37

finishing

Angel City W+0.00on par
North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angel City W ↓

North Carolina Courage W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Angel City W or draw
63%
Angel City W or North Carolina Courage W
74%
Draw or North Carolina Courage W
63%

Winning margin

Angel City W wins by 2+
16%
North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Angel City W 1+ goals
74%
Angel City W 2+ goals
38%
Angel City W 3+ goals
15%
North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals
74%
North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals
39%
North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Angel City W (draw refunded)
49%
North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angel City W at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

North Carolina Courage W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angel City W attack 1.30 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.33 + Angel City W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Angel City W scores more
37%
level
26%
North Carolina Courage W scores more
37%

Angel City W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Angel City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NWSL Women: Angel City W 2–1 North Carolina Courage W

Angel City W beat North Carolina Courage W 2-1 in NWSL Women on July 10, 2023.

The match was played at BMO Stadium in Los Angeles, California.