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Angel City W vs Chicago Red Stars W — NWSL Women 2026

Angel City W
Angel City W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Chicago Red Stars W
Chicago Red Stars W
6/6/2023NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 7BMO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Angel City W45%
×Draw25%
Chicago Red Stars W30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angel City W
1.58
Chicago Red Stars W
1.25

Angel City W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 84 away

creates per match

Angel City W
1.30
Chicago Red Stars W
1.13

allows per match

Angel City W
1.38
Chicago Red Stars W
1.86

finishing

Angel City W+0.00on par
Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angel City W ↓

Chicago Red Stars W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Angel City W or draw
70%
Angel City W or Chicago Red Stars W
75%
Draw or Chicago Red Stars W
55%

Winning margin

Angel City W wins by 2+
23%
Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Angel City W 1+ goals
79%
Angel City W 2+ goals
47%
Angel City W 3+ goals
21%
Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals
71%
Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals
36%
Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Angel City W (draw refunded)
60%
Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angel City W at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

Chicago Red Stars W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.86 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angel City W attack 1.30 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.58

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.13 + Angel City W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Angel City W scores more
45%
level
25%
Chicago Red Stars W scores more
30%

Angel City W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Angel City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NWSL Women: Angel City W 1–2 Chicago Red Stars W

Chicago Red Stars W beat Angel City W 2-1 in NWSL Women on June 6, 2023.

The match was played at BMO Stadium in Los Angeles, California.