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Angel City W vs Bay FC W — NWSL Women 2026

Angel City W
Angel City W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bay FC W
Bay FC W
3/17/2024NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 2BMO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Angel City W42%
×Draw25%
Bay FC W33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angel City W
1.47
Bay FC W
1.28

Angel City W creates 15% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 33 away

creates per match

Angel City W
1.30
Bay FC W
1.18

allows per match

Angel City W
1.38
Bay FC W
1.64

finishing

Angel City W+0.00on par
Bay FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angel City W ↓

Bay FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Angel City W or draw
67%
Angel City W or Bay FC W
75%
Draw or Bay FC W
58%

Winning margin

Angel City W wins by 2+
20%
Bay FC W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Angel City W 1+ goals
77%
Angel City W 2+ goals
43%
Angel City W 3+ goals
18%
Bay FC W 1+ goals
72%
Bay FC W 2+ goals
37%
Bay FC W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Angel City W (draw refunded)
56%
Bay FC W (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angel City W at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

Bay FC W away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angel City W attack 1.30 + Bay FC W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.47

Bay FC W attack 1.18 + Angel City W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Angel City W scores more
42%
level
25%
Bay FC W scores more
33%

Angel City W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Angel City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NWSL Women: Angel City W 0–1 Bay FC W

Bay FC W beat Angel City W 1-0 in NWSL Women on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at BMO Stadium in Los Angeles, California.